Makeup of the US Workforce by Generation, 1962-2015: a Calculator

Recently, we've given you a few calculators which do the tedious math of adjusting for workforce demographic changes. (See them if you haven't: Adjusting Average Incomes for Demographics, Workforce By Age Calculator for the United States).  Today, we're back with an equally interesting and a lot more fun one: a calculator which shows the working … [Read more...]

The DQYDJ Weekender, 1/30/2016

Disappointing last weekend for me - no Patriots last second miracle in the Super Bowl incoming.  Brady looked flat - I'm wondering if someone snuck some nightshades into his hotel food.  Call it my eggplant conspiracy theory. Links We Liked! Piece of the week: Political Calculations calculated the price of Campbell's Soup cans back to 1897 to … [Read more...]

Can The Spread Between Safe and Unsafe Corporate Bonds Predict Stock Returns?

We got an interesting question about our last piece on high yield corporate bonds, asking whether a widening spread had any predictive power for returns.  As the spread between highly rated AAA corporate bonds and below investment grade bonds has recently widened, that sort of information would be worth keeping in your back pocket as you lay out … [Read more...]

Who Makes Up the Workforce, by Year and Age? 1962-2015 – A Calculator

One of the most important...and most ignored... caveats in all of demographics and statistics is Simpson's Paradox - the observation that apparent trends may reverse (or become more severe) when you aggregate or disaggregate data.  The seminal example, also detailed in that Wikipedia piece, is batting averages (we've been on that beat since … [Read more...]

High Yield Bond Spreads: A Rocket Ship to Safety

Back in December, we penned a brief piece on the rapid rise of low-quality bond yields - the price was dropping out of the things, and it made a very impressive rocket-ship looking graph. Turns out, we were early on that trend - the last 6 weeks have seen the spread move further up and to the right.  To wit, here's the Bank of America Merrill … [Read more...]

Income Percentile Calculator for 2015 US Data

This article contains a calculator which will calculate 2015 income percentiles for the United States, based on all individual earners.  It originates from the Current Population Survey in March, so data for comparison would be earned between January 2014 and December 2014 - as in, all income, salaries, dividends, interest, and other payments … [Read more...]

The DQYDJ Weekender, 1/16/2016

The stock market's down, and you didn't win the Powerball.  Too bad, them's the break, eh? Well, at least we'll always have football. Go Patriots! Links We Liked! Have you ever felt too cheap?  Anne at Money Propeller discusses the other side of the problem. Political Calculations has another nice post on companies making dividend cut … [Read more...]

2015 NASDAQ Dividend Reinvested Return

Many other sites report that the NASDAQ returned +5.19% in 2015.  On the contrary: with dividends included and reinvested, the NASDAQ returned +6.40% in 2015. Although including dividend reinvestment didn't switch a supposed loss into a gain (like it did with the S&P 500's 2015 return and the Dow Jones's 2015 return), it does show a nice … [Read more...]

Updated: The Shanghai Composite Versus the Bubble-Era NASDAQ of 2000

A few months back we posted our last update on a curious trend: the old being new again, and Shanghai Composite looking a little too much like the 2000-era NASDAQ post- Technology Bubble. At first, the comparison held up well.  Now, we have to admit - the NASDAQ's fall was tame compared to what's happened in the Shanghai Composite so far (so far … [Read more...]

2015 Dow Jones Industrial Average Return

The Dow Jones Industrial Average did not return -2.23% in 2015, although that is the number you see reported in the media.  Adjusted for dividend reinvestment, the Dow Jones Industrial Average actually returned +0.19% in 2015 - a narrow gain instead of a headline loss. You Need to Factor In Dividend Reinvestment As we pointed out in our similar … [Read more...]

Stock Picks for 2016!

One of our annual traditions is to enter into Financial Uproar's Annual Stock Picking contest - and this year is a special one.  We're the defending champion! Let's launch into the picks: NeuStar Inc. (NYSE:NSR) Cal-Marine Foods (NASDAQ:CALM) Tesoro Corp (NYSE:TSO) Honda Motor (NYSE:HMC) NeuStar Inc Neustar is an information … [Read more...]

2015 S&P 500 Return

Although many sources will report that the S&P 500 returned -0.73% in 2015... if you include dividend reinvestment, the S&P 500 actually returned 1.19% in 2015. Including dividends is the difference between reporting a negative return and a positive one. Dividend Reinvested Returns are Key! As we point out every year, most financial … [Read more...]

The DQYDJ Weekender, 12/25/2015

(We're a day early for the weekend, aren't we?  Well... close enough.) Merry Christmas to all of our Christmas-celebrating-and-recognizing readers!  We hope you're all having an excellent time with friends and family.  And, of course, eating some amazing things. Here's what we've got going later today, a 13 pound turkey in the … [Read more...]

Inflation Expectations After The First Rate Hike Since June 2006

On December 16th, the Federal Reserve raised the Target Federal Funds rate for the first time since June of 2006 - raising it from a range of '0.00% to 0.25%' to a range of '0.25% to 0.50%'.  They also telegraphed a very gradual rising of rates in the future - previous hiking cycles have tended to ratchet up one rise at a constant rate every … [Read more...]

The DQYDJ Weekender, 12/19/2015

Still mad that we've only been doing 1 article a week during the holidays?  We'll be back to our normal schedule after some more of this, so don't fret (too much).  For your loyalty and suffering, I updated these three calculators (through mid December): S&P 500 Dividend Reinvestment Calculator Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend … [Read more...]