Did Donald Trump Beat the S&P 500 With His Career Net Worth Increases?

I'll give a short answer, then back it up with a longer article: Trump's net worth increases probably beat investing in the S&P 500, depending on where you start the counter. (1974 - yes, 1982 - maybe, 1988 - no... but why 1982 and 1988?). However, it's really a silly question, for reasons I'll get to in this piece.  Here's the real … [Read more...]

CCC (and Below) Rated Corporate Bond Total Return Calculator

This article includes a calculator which lets you compute the total realized returns of CCC and below rated corporate debt, as tracked by the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporate Master Index.  This index tracks speculative corporate debt, debt which is recognized to be more risky than the AAA, AA, and A debt tracked in our first calculator … [Read more...]

Maybe The Market Doesn’t Know Where Inflation is Headed

One of the topics we like to revisit time and time again is our calculation of the inflation, measured in CPI, that the market is expecting over various timeframes.  We most recently looked at inflation expectations at the end of August, and noted a recent uptick.  In fact, you don't even have to wait for our updates to get a quick gauge of the … [Read more...]

BBB, BB, and B Rated Corporate Bond Total Return Calculator

The following is a calculator which allows you to compute the total return of corporate bonds rated BBB, BB, or B, including allowances for inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index. It is based on the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporate Master Index, split to only return corporate debt in the B to BBB range.  This can be considered … [Read more...]

Continued: The Shanghai Composite Versus the NASDAQ In 2000

A couple months ago, we pointed out that the returns in China's Shanghai Composite from (and before) its nominal closing peak on 6/12/2015 looked eerily similar to the US's own investing experience with the NASDAQ preceding and immediately following its 3/10/2000 peak. As the market has continued to drop, we decided to come back to the series … [Read more...]

What About US Treasury Debt Owed to China?

Well, what about it? As we often do in our articles: let's back up first. China continues to go through a bit of an economic swoon (it's too early to call it anything else, still) currently, as we've detailed in our stock market articles on the subject recently.  And, yes, "feelings" do matter in stock markets - those mushy things that can't … [Read more...]

The DQYDJ Weekender, 9/5/2015

Still working on that video card - would you buy one?  Think of it: nostalgia at early 90s quality graphics!  Who needs more than 256 colors? Anyway, here's the awesome links we read this week! Links We Liked! Financial Uproar discusses an under-discussed aspect of retirement planning - your mental facilities when it comes to managing your … [Read more...]

Inflation Adjusted, Dividend Reinvested Returns on the S&P 500 In 2015 (Through September)

We've recently fielded a few questions similar to this one: As of today (September 2, 2015 Close), the S&P 500 is down 5.34% on the year.  What would it be down if you reinvested dividends and adjusted for inflation? We've been relatively quiet on this one for a simple reason: once you factor in inflation in the form of CPI, and the various … [Read more...]

Inflation Expectations for the End of August 2015

One series we've been tracking for quite some time now (but not since June) is the market's implied inflation expectations in the United States.  Essentially, when you subtract the yield on inflation adjusted instruments from the Treasury (which will track the CPI) from the yields on non protected securities, you're polling the market on what it … [Read more...]

The DQYDJ Weekender, 8/29/2015

For those of you following my open source video card build, VGATonic, it's moving onto the next round in the 2015 Hackaday Prize!  You can follow along over here. As for our normal fare, here you go! Our friend Jason Hull launched a financial help product (and related web site) - check out myFinancialAnswers; it looks like he's got a good … [Read more...]