Inflation Adjusted, Dividend Reinvested Returns on the S&P 500 In 2015 (Through September)

We've recently fielded a few questions similar to this one: As of today (September 2, 2015 Close), the S&P 500 is down 5.34% on the year.  What would it be down if you reinvested dividends and adjusted for inflation? We've been relatively quiet on this one for a simple reason: once you factor in inflation in the form of CPI, and the various … [Read more...]

Inflation Expectations for the End of August 2015

One series we've been tracking for quite some time now (but not since June) is the market's implied inflation expectations in the United States.  Essentially, when you subtract the yield on inflation adjusted instruments from the Treasury (which will track the CPI) from the yields on non protected securities, you're polling the market on what it … [Read more...]

The Recent Speed of Volatility Changes in the Stock Markets

One thing to notice about the recent turmoil in the American stock markets is how quickly volatility can pop up out of seemingly nowhere. Let me back up: volatility, loosely defined, is an adjective applied to things which change quickly and often without warning.  It has made its way into many advanced fields - in chemistry, it refers to how … [Read more...]

End of an Era (Part 1 of 4 on my move to San Francisco)

I recently moved from the Dallas area to the Bay Area. The first thing I miss is the cost of living. The second thing I miss is the food. Dallas Fort-Worth has Mexican, cajun and good barbecue. But, thankfully, the summers here are much more bearable. It's been 61 and sunny all day everyday for the past few weeks. There's a drought going … [Read more...]

AAA, AA, and A Rated Corporate Bond Total Return Calculator

On this page is a calculator which allows you to compute the total return of corporate bonds rated A, AA, or AAA.  It is based on the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporate Master Index, split out to only return corporate debt in the A to AAA range.  This can be considered 'safe' from a credit rating perspective, although each individual A - … [Read more...]

Breadth vs. Depth in the Market Indices, Part II

On Monday, we put up a brief post about breadth and depth in the S&P 500.  Roughly, even though the S&P 500 itself has shown a lot of strength to at least stay neutral or range bound for quite some time, it's outperforming companies which are keeping it there.  The majority of the index components are showing notable weakness. Weighing … [Read more...]

Breadth vs. Depth in the Market Indices

We've seen an interesting discussion on market breadth versus depth in various market indices in the recent past. It's an interesting point - it's like in basketball, where a dominant performance by a star player can mask a decline in fundamentals from the rest of the team.  So too in, say, the S&P 500 - dominant performances by big firms … [Read more...]

Reinvested Wilshire REIT Index Calculator

On this post is a calculator which allows you to estimate the returns on money invested in the Wilshire REIT Index, an index comprised of American Real Estate Investment Trusts. It generally approximates the returns of large commercial and industrial property REITs, and it our first calculator targeted at returns in that area. (See our calculator … [Read more...]

A Longer Run, Zoomed Out Comparison of the NASDAQ during the Tech Bubble vs. the Shanghai Composite in the Present Day

In response to a couple requests, I decided to extend our recent comparisons of the NASDAQ and Shanghai Composite over a longer timeframe.  It is, of course, arguable that the Shaghai Composite is a "bubble popping event" - we can only claim that sort of thing in retrospect.  But in the present, we can say with confidence that it certainly 'looks … [Read more...]

More on the Shanghai Composite and its Similarities to the NASDAQ Around 2000

In our last piece, we discussed how the Shanghai Composite, the most watched stock index in China, was looking a little too similar to something we've seen in our (collective, unless you're 14) lifetime:  the collapse of the 2000 NASDAQ Technology Bubble.  It was a sloppy first cut - not normalized to anything, and we ended up with separate graphs … [Read more...]