The S&P 500’s Actual, Inflation Adjusted and Dividend Reinvested Price

It annoys us to no end that when people quote market returns, they generally will only use nominal returns, and ignore the effects of inflation.  This discounts the way most of us live - when we take money out, we do so in order to spend at current market prices, not past prices.  When we invest in mutual funds, they generally roll our dividends … [Read more...]

Inflation Adjusted Bitcoin Return Calculator

On this page we present an automatically updating (daily) bitcoin return calculator.  Enter any two dates since July of 2010, and we will compute the annual and total returns on money invested in bitcoin between those two dates.  We also will automatically adjust the quoted returns for inflation, optionally, if you choose the "Adjust For Inflation … [Read more...]

June, 2014 Inflation Expectations: The Hint of Inflation Returns

We'll admit to being a bit bored with the markets lately - sure, we feel things are a bit heated, but we don't see any major bubbles brewing in the American equity markets like some commentators.  Add that to the fact that trading volumes are low in the summer anyway, the world is fascinated with America's sixth favorite sport (okay, we kid; the … [Read more...]

Are Leveraged ETFs Building Up a New Systemic Risk?

Well, yes, but as in all things everywhere ever, it's a matter of degree. In recent days, Larry Fink, the chief executive of Blackrock has been defending comments he made about the systemic dangers of leveraged ETFs.  Leveraged ETFs, unlike most ETFs you can buy are your friendly neighborhood broker, are generally (there are some exceptions) … [Read more...]

Using Options to Predict Future Closing Prices! The Mid June 2014 Edition.

What happens when you take options prices, treat the current trading price as your 'key', and take the range of differences between the current trading price of various contracts and that new, 'key' price? Well, in our experience, an interesting series... but not necessarily an accurate prediction of where the market is headed.  In fact - this … [Read more...]

A Dividend Reinvestment Calculator for EVERY Stock (Including DCA!)

This calculator automatically grabs stock data from our friends at Quandl and automatically calculates how much a position would be worth if the stock was held and all dividends were reinvested between two dates.  As a bonus, it also can calculate historical returns for dollar cost averaging. At launch, that means we support around 15,000 unique … [Read more...]

Inflation and Dividend Adjusted S&P 500 Returns in 2014

We wanted to do this math once a quarter, but... well, we forgot.  So, apologies for that - but today we present the S&P 500's ride for the year and the first quarter, once you take into account dividend reinvestment (you are reinvesting, aren't you?) and inflation. Data is from the S&P 500 Total return index, from Standard and Poor's.  … [Read more...]

Taking the Market’s Temperature – Main Street Edition

We're on record as of last November predicting a plateau (well, technically we predicted a gentle upslope) in the American stock markets... at least over the decade ending November 2023.  As part of our hedging, we checked a number of indicators - including so-called "market sentiment" indicators - when we made our call. Now, our investor … [Read more...]

Emergency Funds are Overrated: Part Three of Three

(Read parts one and two.) In the first two articles, I covered: How important it is to be cash flow positive How to cover very small shortfalls with credit How to cover truly large expenses with different forms of insurance. The most important large unplanned expenses that could potentially be covered by an emergency fund are the … [Read more...]

Dollar Cost Averaging the NASDAQ’s Wild Ride Since ’99

We've had a lot of recent fun with our two part (and... growing?) series on reinvested dividends.  First we told you that timing month to month purchases was a waste of time.  Then, when the goalposts were moved, we redid our analysis for yearly purchases (while addressing the criticisms and giving you a wonderful story about a shower tiling … [Read more...]