Obama’s speech is complete. Let’s summarize the night:
Barack Obama elected President (Only Florida too close to call; doesn’t matter tonight though)
Republicans keep the House (As of right now, about 163 Dem seats vs. 221 Rs, according to CNN. 51 too close to call)
Democrats keep the Senate (Caucus is 51 + 2 Indys, with 3 seats too close to call.)
Obama delivering his prepared victory speech now. Much bigger crowd than at Faneuil Hall in Boston for Romney. But, to be fair, I think I’m still banned from going to Bell in Hand.
As of right now: Barack Obama 52,000,354 vs. Mitt Romney 51,655,370 in the popular vote, thanks to the Western states reporting.
Allen West – Tea Party favorite and candidate for Representative in District 18 in Florida is neck and neck with Democrat Patrick Murphy.
Michele Bachmann – hanging onto a slim lead currently in her election for Representative of Minnesota District 6. That would be a shocker. We’ll keep you posted as we know more.
Romney is about to deliver a concession speech – hit your TVs folks! (Ehh – leave them on?)
From my Facebook: “Florida is Trying to Be the Next Florida”
My first loss in my map from earlier: networks calling Virginia for Obama. Sorry for my right-leaning bias! (I might still get Florida wrong)
Nate Silver, vindicated:
For the first time in history, you’re going to see a Marriage Equality proposition put to the voters pass. Maine & Maryland.
Let’s take a look at the marijuana vote tonight (so far, not calling anything):
Arkansas 48/52 No, 55% reporting, Medical Marijuana
Colorado 53/47 Yes, 39% reporting, Legalize Marijuana
Massachusetts 63/37 Yes, 77% reporting, Medical Marijuana
Montana 59/41 Yes (read), 11% reporting, BAN Medical Marijuana
Oregon 54/46 No, 44% reporting, Legalize Marijuana
Washington 55/45 Yes, 49% reporting, Legalize Marijuana
And it’s been called on CNN and NBC, Obama wins! Let’s turn now to the down-ballot issues.
CNN just called the Senate staying blue. 2 unforced errors (Akin, Mourdock), Massachusetts in an election year, and Olympia Snowe retiring? Meltdown.
Reports that the Denver Post has called Colorado for Obama – if so, Romney is drawing dead and we turn our attention to Propositions and Congressional races!
In case you’re wondering why none of the American networks have called it yet:
Here’s the inside straight for Romney to pull it out (for the non-initiated, ‘inside straight’ means you’re drawing to a miracle):
VA, NC, FL, OH, CO
Aaaaaan Doherty just conceded to Cicciline. So far tonight: no surprises. None. How boring, eh?
Intrade’s first major flip: Florida from 70s for Romney to 80s for Obama (Looking at ‘Democratic Candidate to win FL’):
Cicciline mounting a comeback in RI-1. Looks like the surprise is no more.
Still comes down to Ohio for the electoral college… not looking good for Romney there either.
Obama hit 90% on Intrade a second ago, after Pennsylvania was called on the networks for Obama. Unless something crazy happens in Ohio, it’s over…
Obama rocketship taking off on Intrade:
Note Intrade has been giving better odds to Romney than most bookmakers, and even other market based prediction markets such as Betfair and the Iowa Electronic Markets.
Thanks to Google, the current popular vote:
Candidate Popular vote Percentage Electoral votes
Mitt Romney 11446578 51% 76
Barack Obama 10669031 48% 64
If Romney wins the popular vote and loses the electoral vote, will we get the same media push for a voting overhaul?
Angus Young represents the 2nd independent in the new Senate – trade Joseph Lieberman for him in the next Democratic Caucus.
Notre Dame alumnus Joe Donnelly in close race in Indiana senate versus Richard Mourdock, just like our last liveblog where he was battling Jackie Walorski. It looks like Angus King (independent but caucuses with Democrats) is taking a Maine senate seat. Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren in another close race in New England (the third one that we Boston-biased writers have pointed out)
First shocker of the night? Brendan Doherty (R) over David Cicilline (D, Incumbent) so far in Rhode Island House District 1, too close to call. Full Disclosure: I know Brendan Doherty.
If IA, NV, FL, VA, CO go Romney and WI, NH, OH and PA go Obama then it is an electoral split 269-269… Unless the district-level electoral votes in Nebraska and Maine determine the election!
Also, allow me to beat CNN and AP projections: TN, AL, MS for Romney and NJ for Obama.
Just to put my two cents in on PK’s projections: I agree with all of the states except I think Virginia will go Obama. The more I look at the electoral race, it seems an extremely uphill battle for Romney if Obama takes Ohio and he has been leading by 2-3 points the past few weeks.
Quote from voter in Colorado (on Amendment 64): “I don’t know if we are going to be a red state or a blue state, but we will assuredly be the first green state.”
Okay, see you guys on the other side of my Day Job. I’ll try to get Cameron out here so you won’t be too bored waiting for me!
On Congress… I won’t let you pin me down, but 46-49 Senators in the R column, one new Indy (Maine) to caucus with the Democrats. So, narrow Democratic control – but if Romney wins the Presidency I’ll be off a few seats since that means the polls were off.
On the Representatives side? No surprises there – the Republicans will hold, guaranteeing divided government in the event of an Obama win. 238-242 is my rough prediction – 218 is a majority.
Let’s kick it off with what I’m predicting on the Presidential side – none too different from InTrade was last night (~ 290 – 246 to Obama… at least we’ll add up to 538). To the Republicans – I’ll be surprised by a Romney win in the Electoral College, but not “shocked, SHOCKED”.
Did we learn nothing from last time? Apparently not – we’re back, and we still arrogantly think that our commentary on the elections is useful. It’s going to be a long night!
Have a great night and thanks for joining us here and on Twitter – interacted with tons of people tonight. Stick around and subscribe, will ya?