Mitt Romney in a Landslide! Also, Ron Paul Just Drew Pocket Aces…

Posted By PK Last updated January 12th, 2012 13 Comments

The late William F. Buckley, founder of the conservative-leaning political magazine National Review had some very practical advice when it came to the Republican primaries: vote for the most conservative candidate who can win. Add to that little piece of advice this oft-repeated maxim: “Democrats fall in love. Republicans fall in line.” (popularized by Bill Clinton). Toss those two together and what do you get? New Hampshire Primary results… at least according to the exit polls! Let’s dig in…

Don’t worry, I’ll probably only do this through the South Carolina primaries… then it’s onto other topics (as interesting as exit polls can be!).

2012 New Hampshire Primary: Vote By Age

12% of voters fell into the 18-29 bracket, 19% into the 30-44, 48% into the 45-65 and 21% into the 65 and older.

Check out the mirror images – support for Ron Paul and Mitt Romney were basically reversed, with Paul taking the younger crew, and less as voters got older. This is huge, as Paul holds the cards to the younger voters (and, coincidentally, Independent-minded voters) which the eventual nominee would love to have in a general election. I, like Major Garrett, see big things in the near future if Paul continues to sew up more delegates. Jon Huntsman, Jr. also did well with the older crowd, but couldn’t stop the Romney juggernaut.

2012 New Hampshire Primary: Vote By Income

The data in the exit poll is broken down into income brackets of $30,000 and less, $30,000 – $50,000, $50,000 – $100,000, $100,000 – $200,000 and $200,000 and more. The electorate fit those brackets as 11%, 15%, 37%, 27% and 10%, respectively.

There it is once more! You can see another mirror image in the Ron Paul and the Romney vote. Again, Romney won all the income brackets but the smallest one, but the trend is evident… voters who made less prefer Paul more. Interesting stuff!

2012 New Hampshire Primary: Vote By Candidate Quality

We saved the best for last (so now you can really see what I was talking about in the introduction). Here you’ll see how the votes turned out when asked to choose the top ‘candidate quality’ they were seeking. There were four categories: ‘Can Defeat Obama’ (35%), ‘True Conservative’ (13%), ‘Strong Moral Character’ (22%), ‘Right Experience’ (26%). So, basically, voters were asked what their number one priority was, then who their choice was… and the results are strong for both Paul and Romney.

It’s coming up Romney for the two “practical” categories… but when it comes to fundamentals, Paul takes the cake with the large pluralities (41% in ‘True Conservative’ and 40% in ‘Strong Moral Character’). Remember, Bill Clinton beat the elder George Bush with 42% of the vote in what was essentially a three-man race.

On Third Party Runs and Convention Speeches…

Ron Paul holds a potential trump card: the (unlikely) threat of a third party run. However, in his current position as a top tier candidate he has the potential to gain a massive amount of influence just by staying in the race. Remember how the long debates between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama dragged out and the vitriol between the two (“You’re likable enough, Hillary”) ? Yeah… she’s now the Secretary of State and the most popular national political figure. Pretty good runner-up prize.

So, assuming a Romney victory, Paul will get to help set platform messaging and will likely be rewarded with a prime time convention speech. Notice he’s turned the big guns on Gingrich (in Iowa) and Santorum (immediately after)… yet remains holstered when discussing Romney. Watch this dynamic closely… if you see those guys complementing each other (see what I did there?), you’ll know the dynamics. You Ron Paul fans out there perhaps might like this Dark Knight quote from Lt. Gordon: “Because he’s the hero Gotham deserves, but not the one it needs right now.” Apply that as you see fit!

What do you think? Is Mitt Romney going to be carrying water for Ron Paul at the Republican Convention? See anything interesting in the results posted? Do you have any theories on the current dynamics of the race?

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Filed Under: Politics

andrew.snowden82

Just wanted to say thanks for the great read!
- http://www.dqydj.net/ PK
  
  Glad you enjoyed it!
  
  We definitely pump out a lot more political articles during the even years – the Politics section is littered with “2010″ time stamps. I’m sure there’s plenty of interesting stuff to think way too hard about coming up in this election…
http://money.ramblingfever.com/ Matthew Allen

Your charts clearly show that older people earn more and younger people earn less! Makes me wonder why the older crowd supports Romney. Do they want something like RomneyCare (or Obamacare) to stay in place so they don’t have to spend their own money on healthcare?

I admit, I don’t know a ton about Ron Paul because he doesn’t get the media attention like the other candidates. Where are the young people getting their information and why do they support him?

Although not surprising, it’s interesting to see the massive percentage of people who think Romney is most likely to be able to defeat Obama.

Another great post PK. Now you’ll get a triple link in the RRR!
- http://www.dqydj.net/ PK
  
  Matt – wait until you see the link I’ve got to you this week. You’ll enjoy it thoroughly.
  
  For the record, unless you have seen Ron Paul in person, been glued to the intricacies of National Politics since 2008 (or 1988?), or sought out information on your own, the odds you came across a reasoned discussion of Ron Paul’s platform are quite low. The fact is, media generally ignored Paul until his polls started suggesting that, hey, there’s something here !
  
  If you want to blow your mind, Google ‘Buddy Roemer’ or ‘Gary Johnson’.
Greg

First off, kudos for making what’s got to be the only compliment/complement bon mot I’ve ever seen. That was awesome. (It’s rare enough to see someone even use the right homonym, let alone combine the two of them.)

Second, and let’s ignore for the moment that I have a Ron Paul sticker on my truck, Romney is the very embodiment of the status quo. The Republicans have this undeniable penchant for nominating the guy who finished second the previous time. Sometimes it works (Reagan, both Bushes), sometimes it doesn’t (McCain). I think the reason Romney does so well among the moneyed is that those are the folks who cut the largest checks. Never mind that there’s never been a favored candidate who inspires so little passion. Romney is the soft hits radio station of this campaign, the one that no one really likes but everyone agrees to listen to rather than fight over the dial.

Wow, that was an awkward analogy.

Paul’s complimenting of Romney is selective – Paul is basically trying to get the point across to the simpletons that just because Romney wore a suit and shuffled papers for a living, doesn’t mean he’s a Fannie Mae- or Bank of America-level crook. I just wonder if Paul will be satisfied with merely a speech at the convention. Remember, he’s not running for Congress this time.

Would Paul be a viable running mate? Marco Rubio seems to be the young, fresh, ethnically strategic favorite, but think about it.
Even though I’m a Paul fan, I’m a realist. I know that Romney is a 1-to-5 favorite to win the nomination. But a Romney/Paul ticket would galvanize the limited government types who hate politics, hate politicians, and would otherwise sit out the election. The only stumbling block I can think of is that Paul is such a true believer, that you just know that Romney would advocate policies that Paul wouldn’t privately endorse.

I love that a 76-year old man does best among young people. Further proof that his ideas are timeless and not bound by political expediency.
- http://www.dqydj.net/ PK
  
  I actually worried that I would get a comment: “you spelled ‘compliment’ wrong, stupid”. Now I just feel like I insulted everyone by pointing out the pun. Well, it’s too late now… the Internet is now of the opinion that I look down on the sense of humor of my readers. I’ll admit I did ‘lol’ for real when I wrote it before I attached the statement in parentheses.
  
  While the second Bush was a success from an electoral perspective (in the Republican party, that is), Bush II didn’t do much for the Libertarian/Republican alliance. McCain was almost certainly a weak candidate, and had no natural coalition… but he was cannon fodder in what was going to be a bad year for any Republican, anyway. The interesting thing about the 2008 elections is that Romney ran to the RIGHT of McCain (as I’m sure you recall, but the selective memory of some voters still mandates that point).
  
  As for the convention, a prime time speech would be a well-deserved reward for Paul, but if he has enough leverage with delegates he’ll be able to shape the platform (which is arguably much more important). Would Paul be selling out? I’m trying to be dispassionate, but I certainly have Libertarian tendencies too – but politics is the art of the possible, and Rand Paul is waiting in the wings. I personally don’t think that endorsing a Romney would be bad if he can extract concessions. I think that Paul has already done a huge amount of good for the Libertarian brand when it comes to enforcing economic discipline among his fellow candidates.
  
  If I had to pick a VP? I’d guess Rubio. I would have gone Christie, but I feel like Rubio is a better choice now. Ron would be an interesting pick, but I think he’d be of the opinion that he is more useful in the House instead of VP or a Cabinet level position. (I know Rand Paul has said he would prefer the Senate to a Cabinet post).
  
  Not only are his ideas timeless, but his consistency is something not often seen from modern politicians. If he continues to inspire the youth vote and can successfully pass off his support to 2016 and 2020 voters? Libertarianism will be pretty strong.
  
  Well, now that we’ve written the first two chapters of a book, I’ve thought enough for another article. Make sure to come leave your mark on that one, too!
http://www.moneyspruce.com/ Jeffrey Trull

Romney’s got this thing all but locked up now.

I’m surprised that Huntsman scored highly on “right experience.” He seems to be all but ignored in other categories, but somehow he has the “right experience” but doesn’t have my support in actual votes.

Honestly, I don’t see any candidate that can defeat Obama. Each Republican simply has flaws that are too large to overcome and allow them to appeal to the masses.
- http://www.dqydj.net/ PK
  
  I do like Obama’s chances, but I don’t think there is going to be a 2008 McCain style beat down in 2012. The unemployment numbers are certainly going the right way for the President currently. Also working for him is the incumbent effect, which I’ve heard adds around 2-4 points to a total – and since it’s the first term of a Democrat in the White House, that effect will be even stronger (it’s less when it’s the third term – see Bush, the first one).
  
  I still wouldn’t count out Mitt. It’s going to be a battle because Obama has suffered some decline in popularity among the people who came out for him in 2008. Yes, there’s excitement – but the negative campaigning we’re going to see is going to be far different from 2008′s “Hope and Change”. I think Intrade has it about right (as of today) – President Obama 51% to be reelected and Mitt Romney 85% to be the Republican nominee.
http://www.thefreefinancialadvisor.com/average-joes-money-blog/ AverageJoe

I’m most surprised by two items:

1) The number of people who think that Romney can defeat President Obama, but don’t think Huntsman can. Really?

2) The number of people w/ big income who want Romney over Paul. That doesn’t compute….though maybe it would if I weren’t entering this as soon as I read the piece (and instead thought about it for a moment….)

Good stuff again, dude.
- http://www.dqydj.net/ PK
  
  Joe, thanks for the compliment! I just print what I see and try to read between the lines.
  
  For number 1, I’m not sure the average primary-voting Republican knows enough about Huntsman to think he can beat President Obama. Ideologically, some Very Serious People have made the case he’s got an even better shot than Romney. Huntsman did spend some time insulting the base and skipping Iowa, however, and I don’t think that plays well…
  
  For number 2 it might be a calculation. “In a Paul world” they might retain the most cash, but a “Romney world” is more likely… and they figure they should lock it up early. Just a thought – I tried but failed to read voter thoughts in New Hampshire, haha!
http://www.101centavos.com/ 101 Centavos

I’ve had a few conversations with older voters who have a limited buy-in on the ideas Ron Paul is proposing. Some like his non-interventionism abroad, but are turned off by the drug legalization. Others really like his fiscal conservative ideas, but fault him for “going too far” and calling for abolishing the Fed.

Just by being persistent and staying in the race (and you have to admire his energy, vim and vigor at his age) he’s putting libertarian ideals front and center into the national frontal lobe.
- http://www.dqydj.net/ PK
  
  I look at the Ron Paul 2008 campaign then I look at the doubled (and more) support in 2012. In 4 more years, even more young folks will be looking at a Paul-like candidate. If the movement can keep the upper end of the age range can you imagine the rabid base of Libertarian support a candidate would have in 2016? 2020?
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Mitt Romney in a Landslide! Also, Ron Paul Just Drew Pocket Aces…

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