The Definitive Guide to Protest Voting!

In The Simpsons Treehouse of Horror VII, you can find one of the most poignant cultural references ever made by a cartoon:

Homer: America, take a good look at your beloved candidates. They’re nothing but hideous space reptiles!
Kodos: It’s true, we are aliens… but what are you going to do about it? It’s a two-party system; you have to vote for one of us!
Man1: He’s right, this is a two-party system!
Man2: Well, I believe I’ll vote for a third-party candidate…
Kang: Go ahead, throw your vote away!

Of course, Ross Perot is then shown punching a hole in a “Perot ’96″ hat.

So, let’s say that you aren’t completely happy with either Democratic President Barack Obama or Republican Candidate Mitt Romney.  What’s a budding protest voter to do?

Gary Johnson, L-2012 (Wikipedia)

Separate Yourselves into Categories!

Like most things in life, even though you’ve got a vague (or not so vague) sense of disappointment, you’ll still have to do a bit of self-reflection and a bit of research to ‘do it right’, so to speak.  You need to figure out two things:

1. Where your state falls in the electoral math – are you in a solid or lean Republican State?  Democratic?  Are you in a tossup?  I like to use the RealClearPolitics electoral map, (but I don’t even have to look to know that California is going to vote for Barack Obama.)
2. How deep your disappointment is -  are you mostly happy with one of the two marquee options?  Are you mostly disappointed in one, but you think the other will run the country into the ground?

Now that you’ve figured that out, you can figure out what to do!

If You Are Deeply Disappointed in a Party

Let’s say your major issue is foreign non-aggression and you would have gone R for Ron Paul.  Or, perhaps, you voted for Barack Obama in 2008 to close Guantanamo Bay and reverse the Patriot Act.  Well, you’re probably pretty disappointed now.

If you consider the candidate you lean towards unforgivable, vote for a third party.  Full stop.  In America, there is no ‘explanation’ attached to your vote – that is, your ‘protest vote’ for the other major party candidate is indistinguishable from any other vote for that candidate.  If you were going to vote for Ron Paul and now want to vote for Barack Obama, or perhaps had hope in 2008 and lost it (and are now pulling the lever for Mitt Romney), tossing your vote into a massive pile of normal votes isn’t going to help shift your original lean party.  All it is going to do is give the other party more political capital.  The worst thing you can do, if you fall into this category is ‘throw your vote away’, so to speak:

Pretend you’re a Ron Paul primary fan, and you don’t like anything about Romney/Ryan.  There are two things you can do:

Vote For Barack Obama
Vote For A Third Party (likely Gary Johnson, or even a write-in of Ron Paul)

So, in essence, you either add to Barack Obama’s political capital, or you actually register a true protest vote and vote for a party intellectually close – but not quite parallel – to the platform you actually desire.

As you can see – if you’re deeply disappointed, you need to try to shift a major party to you, instead of spitting into the wind of millions of other voters for the other guy.

If You Are Mildly Disappointed in a Party

Let’s say you wanted a single payer health plan in Barack Obama’s first term, or you wanted a candidate who would cut spending instead of redefining it as ‘cutting

Jill Stein, G-2012 (Wikipedia)

planned future increases of spending’.  Sure, you’re disappointed.  But there is also no denying that one of the major parties is close to your point of view.  Barack Obama’s term has certainly been more traditionally progressive than Bill Clinton’s.  Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are the most (small-l) libertarian candidates to come out of the Republican camp since at least 1980 if not 1964.

Remember I asked you to figure out where your state stands?  That comes into play for this section.

If you are in a ‘safe’ Democratic or Republican state?

Vote for the third party.  Odds are your vote doesn’t change the math in your state.  So, you like the Green Party in Texas?  The Libertarian Party in California?  You and people like you will signal the major parties to shift to pick up your votes in future elections.  If, suddenly, 20% of California votes Libertarian, you better believe there will be pandering for that block.  Down-ballot, it’s your call – but you should check out the stance on those politicians.  Politics at the state level are often different than on the national stage – look at Democrats in West Virginia or Republicans in Oregon, for example.

If you are in a ‘lean’ Democratic or Republican State?

Keep an eye on the rankings as the elections approach, but still think about pulling that third party lever!  The same ideas apply – you are trying to signal to a major party to pivot to grab your votes in a future election.  Pay close attention to the polls though – if it gets close you’ll want to pull the lever for your ‘lean’ party, after all.  Same idea downballot – don’t automatically assume you should write off the major parties.

If you are in a swing state?

The major parties like to play on the emotions of slightly disappointed voters and claim that “a vote for {insert third party candidate} is a vote for {the other mainstream candidate!}”.  Well, no, not really – unless a small contingent of protest voters can actually swing an election.  Think Florida, 2008 or Ohio, pretty much every election.  That’s right – the idea that’s been pounded into our heads that a third party is actually a ‘wasted’ vote is only maybe the case in one out of the four cases enumerated!

So, yes; if you are in a swing state and your ‘missing vote’ might swing the election, help your ‘lean’ party.  Perhaps a future electoral system (instant run-off, perhaps?) will solve the ‘sad lever pull’ problem.

It’s Not “Throwing Your Vote” Away

The power of third parties isn’t really in competing for the crown.  The power comes by keeping the big two honest – when splinter groups form, it’s because of the unease and disappointment of former leaners.  Libertarians – if you get traction, you better believe that the Republicans will come looking for your votes in 2016.  Green Party – if you’re disappointed and vote Jill Stein in large numbers, you better believe that Democratic allies will try to include you in their tent.

It’s hard to make everyone happy, all the time – but if you believe the hype that your vote for a third party is never worthwhile, expect to be walked upon by one of the big two.  Your vote is not a waste.

So cast your votes proudly – for you will have little effect this election, but the votes you record today will shape the future of politics for years to come!  And if I didn’t convince you?  Read our friend Kevin’s take at Thousandaire.

Are you disappointed enough in the major candidates to consider a protest vote?  Do you still think you’d be throwing your vote away?  Did you vote for Ross Perot?