The DQYDJ Weekender (Week of 1/23/12)

You’re back reading the Weekender!  Happy weekend!

I’ve hidden my political math until the end of the article.

SOPA Links

We got a fair amount of love for our screed against SOPA & PIPA we used to black the site out last week.    I’d like to individually thank everyone for linking to the article – good to know you all read the whole thing instead of just saying, “I’ll be back tomorrow!”

What next?  You click the links and subscribe, of course!

Carnivals and Featured Links

Links of the Week

Speaking of Debates…

Watching the political betting market Intrade can be an interesting thing during debates – such as the debate which occurred Thursday in Florida (broadcast on CNN).  Since bets can come in at any hour, the markets should reflect the real time predictions of a betting market on the likelihood of an event.  To wit?  Odds for the candidates to win the Florida primary at a half hour cadence on the night of the debates, the 26th.  The debates were from 5:00 – 7:00 PM EST.

Notice anything interesting?  The consensus before the race was that Newt Gingrich had to have a big night in order to beat Mitt Romney in Florida.  The largest slide to Romney came after the debates – almost as if people waited for the press to weigh in on the debates which had just ended.  And weigh in they did – the consensus after the debates?  Romney was slightly shaky, but Gingrich seemed off his game.  Since even a tie was a win for Romney (in this case, I would argue he won outright… but sentiment during the debate moved towards Gingrich, as you can see), the markets shifted in the run up to midnight.

And as this article is going out?  The odds are 95.3% for Romney and 4.4% for Gingrich to win the Florida primary.

See you next week!

Comments

  1. says

    Intrade is a pretty neat site to check out predictions. I suppose you are familiar with Robin Hanson? He has written about these in the past and how we should be making more use of them.

    Thanks for the inclusion, and I was happy to link out to your SOPA page. :)

  2. says

    Greatly appreciate the mention! About the injustices of both a personal income tax and of the debt, Bob Murphy has had some good debates with others on this lately.

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